Relative Strength


Gold has been trading inversely to the dollar recently. This has set up an expectation to see gold correct once the dollar emerges from a daily cycle low.

gld $$$

The dollar appears to have printed a daily cycle low on Thursday and instead of correcting, gold displayed relative strength.

1 $$$

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 25, following the day 20 peak. At 25 days, that places the buck late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Thursday has good odds of marking the daily cycle low.


Last week gold was late (26 weeks) in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. So a new daily cycle had an excellent chance to also signal a new intermediate cycle. But there was concern that a rallying dollar could extend the intermediate gold decline. Instead, gold closed above the declining intermediate trend line in a clear and convincing manner on Thursday to confirm that gold is in week 1 of a new intermediate cycle.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s