Bearish Bias on Bonds

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Bonds are in their 3rd intermediate cycle of the year which places them in their timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A left translated, failed weekly cycle will confirm the yearly cycle decline. With the current weekly cycle forming as a left translated cycle, this sets up a bearish bias for bonds.

1 tlt weekly

Bonds are on week 12 for their intermediate cycle. Week 4 remains as the intermediate cycle peak, setting up as a left translated weekly cycle formation. A break below 126.95 will form a failed weekly cycle which will confirm the yearly cycle decline.

2 tlt daily

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 13 and printed its lowest point on day 16. Wednesday’s break above the day 16 high of 130.85 forces us to label day 16 as an early daily cycle low. That makes Wednesday day 9 for the daily bond cycle. Now a break below the day 16 low of 128.91 will form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

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