Looking at the Dollar & Gold

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Yesterday we looked at gold’s intermediate cycle and discussed how gold was on the precipice of an intermediate decline. Today we will look at where the dollar is in its intermediate cycle.

$$$ weekly

In early May the dollar was very deep in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. Last week the dollar formed a weekly swing low and closed above the lower weekly cycle band. This delivers our first signal that the dollar set its intermediate cycle low. However we are waiting on a break of the declining weekly trend line to confirm that the dollar is in a new intermediate cycle.

So if the dollar printed its intermediate cycle low the 1st week of May, then the dollar is in its first daily cycle for the new weekly cycle.

$$$

The first daily cycle normally forms as a right translated daily cycle which peaks on or after day 13. The daily cycle high sits at day 8, when the dollar tested the 50 day MA. The dollar now appears to be forming a mini triangle consolidation. A bullish break of this consolidation will begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Gold also appears to be forming a mini triangle consolidation.

gld

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily gold cycle, placing gold 1 day shy of entering its timing band to print a daily cycle low. I suspect if the dollar delivers a bullish break of its consolidation we will see gold react with a bearish break of its consolidation sending gold into final daily cycle decline. And a break of the previous daily cycle low of 1228.30 will form a failed daily cycle.

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