The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Friday, forming a failed daily cycle.
The dollar is in a daily down trend that is characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in its daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band. With Friday being only day 13, the dollar still has another 5 days before entering its timing band for a daily cycle low.
I real time stocks peaked on day 34 and printed its lowest point on day 38. This followed a pattern of 30 – 55 point corrections. Since it was in the timing band for a daily cycle low we labeled day 38 as a daily cycle low .
Now it appears that day 38 was not the daily cycle low. Stocks went on to peak on day 43, formed a swing high and then declined. Stocks closed below the upper daily cycle band on Friday, which is a signal of a daily cycle decline. If day 38 was not the daily cycle low, that would make Friday day 51, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.
The bullish reversal on Friday has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2073.85 forms a daily swing low. That would also have stocks close above the upper daily cycle band, which would indicate a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.
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