Bearish Follow Through for Bonds


Bonds closed convincingly below the 50 day MA today.

80 tlt daily

I believe that that the daily cycle peaked on day 1 and bonds are now in a failed daily cycle. A close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate that bonds have begun a daily down trend. And I am correct that this is only day 4, bonds could trend lower for another 12 to 18 days before printing its daily cycle low.

81 tlt weekly

With this being the 3rd intermediate cycle of the year our expectation is to see a left translated weekly cycle form. It appears that bonds have printed a failed daily cycle, which will lead to the intermediate cycle decline. A weekly swing high has formed off the week 4 peak. A break below 126.95 forms a failed weekly cycle and confirms the yearly cycle decline.


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