The Thursday Night Update

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The dollar continue to rally out of its daily cycle low today.

$$$

Today is day 2 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is currently in a down trend, as characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in the daily down trend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

But this rally in the dollar is sending gold lower.

gold

Gold formed a swing high off the day 11 peak. Today gold delivered more bearish follow through. Today is only day 13 for the daily gold cycle. Gold still has another 1 to 3 weeks to print a daily cycle low. With the dollar apparently emerging from an intermediate cycle low, then a failed daily cycle is becoming more of a possibility. A break below 1206.00 forms a failed daily cycle.

gold weekly

The weekly chart shows us that gold has now retraced back below the declining weekly trend line making it look more and more like gold delivered a false weekly break out.

Meanwhile bonds are closing in on their daily cycle low.

tlt

The lower low on day 23 places bonds deeper in their timing band for a daily cycle low. We should see bonds break below the daily cycle trend line before forming a daily cycle low. Then a swing low and a break of the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

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