It looks like gold just threw us a curve ball.
Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 18, formed a swing high and closed below the upper daily cycle band on day 19. Then printed its lowest point on day 20. The swing low and close above the upper daily cycle band then next day indicated a new daily cycle.
Gold formed a swing high on day 3 and looked to be forming an extremely left translated daily cycle. The break below the day 20 low formed a failed daily cycle which would align with the expectation of a decline into an intermediate cycle low.
However, today’s break of the declining trend line has changed our cycle counts. A trend line break is one of our tools to help identify a daily cycle low. Since day 8 (March 28th) would be too early for a daily cycle low, that indicates that day 20 was not the daily cycle low.
The daily cycle low printed at the lowest point on March 28th. Therefore we need to align our cycle count to acknowledge that March 28th was day 28 and the daily cycle low.
By recognizing March 28th as the daily cycle low instead of March 15th means that gold has not yet printed a failed daily cycle. Therefore we still need to see a failed daily cycle to signal the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the day 28 low of 1206.00 will form a failed daily cycle.