The 3/31/16 Report

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The intermediate dollar cycle peaked back in December on week 14. It has been in decline ever since.

$$$ weekly

This is week 31 for the intermediate dollar cycle. This places the dollar deep in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low is required to mark the intermediate cycle low. A break above 96.42 forms a weekly swing low.

$$$ daily

The dollar printed a lower low today. While today may have been day 9,
there are 2 reasons why I suspect an extended daily cycle with today being day 34.

1) The bullish TSI divergence indicates a possible bullish surprise for the dollar.

2) The lower low has extended the intermediate cycle out to week 31. A day 9 count would mean that the dollar would need another 2 – 4 more weeks before a daily cycle low forms, thus extending out the intermediate cycle to weeks 33 – 35, a low probability scenario.

Which makes a day 34 count more likely. A break above 95.01 will form a daily cycle low and quite likely indicate that the intermediate cycle low has formed as well.

Meanwhile stocks did form a swing high today.

spx

Thursday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle. Which places stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A loss of the 10 day MA at this point should indicate that stocks have begun their decline into a daily cycle low. A peak on day 32 assures us of a right translated cycle formation. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend. They will remain in a daily uptrend if the daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band.

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