The 3/31/16 Morning Report


The daily equity cycle peaked last week on day 27. A swing high formed on day 28 and then stocks went on to print their lowest point on Thursday, day 29. That placed stocks one day shy of their normal timing band to print a daily cycle low.

spx swing high

So while we need to acknowledge a possible day 29 DCL, the next chart we will look at makes me think that Wednesday was day 32 and a daily cycle decline is still imminent.

$ SPX new high

The New Highs have exceeded level of new highs for the past 28 months. Which makes me think that stocks are closer to a peak than a daily cycle low.

spx break

Therefore we will label Wednesday day 32, which places stocks in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. A break below 2058.27 will form a swing high and send stocks into their daily cycle decline. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend. If a daily cycle low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend.


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