The dollar printed a swing low on Friday, indicating a new daily cycle.
While there is a possibility that Thursday was day 10, I believe that it is more likely day 22, which places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A clear and convincing break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.
The bullish divergence developing on the TSI and the collapsing new lows indicate that an extended 60 day daily cycle low has been left behind.
A swing low has formed off of the day 17 low. Since 17 days is too early for a daily cycle low, it is quite possible that day 17 was a half cycle low. If Thursday was a half cycle low then any counter-trend rally should not exceed the February 1st high of 1947.20.
There is another possible scenario. It is possible that the 43 day daily cycle low in January, was only a half cycle low, extending cycle decline extend to Thursday. This would mean stretching the daily cycle out to 60 days. The bullish divergence developing on the TSI and the collapsing of new lows support this scenario. And if Friday began a new daily cycle, that would align with the timing band of a new intermediate cycle.
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