The dollar did close above the upper daily cycle band following the day 12 low, which signals a new daily cycle. A cycle peak on day 1 and an early 12 day daily cycle low are 2 low probability events which make it likely that Friday was day 18 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
Often times the dollar turns on or around a Jobs Friday. The dollar did print a bullish reversal on Friday that regained the 200 MA. An 18 count would place the dollar in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. A break above 97.31 forms a daily swing low.
This was a critical week for the dollar. This week’s decline has set things in motion that I discuss in my special report: The Status of the Dollar. In this report we will look at the dollar’s current 3 year cycle and where it is in the 15 year super cycle.
Stocks printed their lowest point in January on day 43. Stocks closed above the lower daily cycle band on January 29th to indicate that day 43 marked the daily cycle low.
The bullish reversal Wednesday allowed us to draw a trend line. Stocks breached that trend line on Friday. This indicates that stocks have entered their daily cycle decline. The peak on day 9 locks in a left translated cycle formation. Stocks have been caught in a daily down trend, characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in a daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.
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