NATGAS confirmed a new daily cycle today.
The NATGAS daily cycle recently peaked on day 13, formed a swing high and declined into its daily cycle low. NATGAS printed a higher low on day 21, forming a right translated daily cycle.
NATGAS consolidated the daily cycle decline for 4 days. Today NATGAS broke higher, forming a clear and convincing swing low and closing above the lower daily cycle band to confirm Thursday as day 5 of the new daily cycle. Our cyclical expectation is to see NATGAS go on to print a higher daily cycle high.
Oil also confirmed a new daily cycle today.
Oil printed its lowest point on 1/20, which was day 24. That placed oil a bit short of its normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Oil did formed a swing low and delivered a declining trend line break. Today we saw oil close above the lower daily cycle band to confirm that day 24 hosted the daily cycle low, making today day 6 of a new daily cycle.
I am not surprised to see these to commodity sectors rally on the bearish break of the dollar.
As we discussed this morning, the dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 7. A swing high formed on Wednesday, day 11 that also breached the daily cycle trend line. Today the dollar delivered more bearish follow through by closing below the daily cycle trend line. Thursday was day 12 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. Since the dollar is 6 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, we can expect the dollar to trend lower for the next 1 – 2 weeks before printing its daily cycle low.
Something to keep in mind is the jobs number is due out next Friday. So we just may see the dollars ‘s daily cycle decline stretch into next Friday.