Timing Band

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Monday was day 37 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

spx daily

The bullish reversal today has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1935.65 forms a swing low. A break of the accelerated declining trend line would be the first signal of a new daily cycle. We would like to see a close above the lower daily cycle band to confirm a new daily cycle.

weekly SPX

This week 20 for the intermediate equity cycle. Stocks are now in their timing band to print an intermediate (weekly) cycle low. After a scary drop last week there is a lot of fear that stocks will keep on dropping. If an intermediate cycle low were to form here, that would likely catch many on the wrong side of the trade. Since stocks have printed a lower low already, the earliest a weekly swing low can form will be next week. Then a close above the lower weekly cycle band would indicate a new intermediate cycle.

The dollar is in its timing band to print a daily cycle low.

$$$

Monday was day 22 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar printed a bullish reversal that breached the daily cycle trend line, which satisfies the requirements to form a daily cycle low. A swing low accompanied with a declining trend line break will signal a new daily cycle.

And this potential new daily cycle for the buck has caused the Miners to drop.

gdx

The Miner’s daily cycle peaked last Thursday, which was day 13. A swing high formed on Friday. Monday saw the Miners drop over 4% and breach the daily cycle trend line, which confirms the daily cycle decline. Monday was only day 15 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners are still 3 days shy of entering their timing band to print a daily cycle low. As long as the Miners remain above the previous daily cycle low, then they remain in a daily uptrend. If the Miners break below the previous daily cycle low of 13.19, that will form a failed daily cycle which would signal the intermediate cycle decline.

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One thought on “Timing Band

  1. Pingback: The 1/12/16 Morning Report | Cycle Trading

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