Opens on a Bad Note


Stocks open the year on a bad note.


Stocks started off the new year by dropping over 2%, before recovering somewhat into the close. The drop caused stocks to break below the 12/14 low. If 12/14 was a 53 day, daily cycle low then today’s drop forms a failed daily cycle.


The volatility over the last 2 months have made it difficult to maintain an accurate daily cycle count. Back in November, in real time it looked as if November 16th was a 34 day daily cycle low. There are reasons to argue that 12/14 hosted the daily cycle low. In either case, stocks have definitely formed a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. But if 11/16 was the daily cycle low, that makes Monday day 32. Which would place stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

spx 2

This is week 19 for the intermediate equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. So there is the possibility that if stocks can form a daily swing low, that it will mark the daily cycle low and the intermediate cycle low.


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