The CRB’s daily cycle peaked Friday, day 12. It printed a huge bearish candle today. That bearish candle not only formed a daily swing high, but also closed below both the daily cycle trend line and the upper daily cycle band to confirm the daily cycle decline.
A peak on day 11 begins to shift the odds of this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. With Monday being day 12, the CRB has still 6 more days before entering its timing band to print a daily cycle low. It will probably print a daily cycle low once the new daily cycle for the dollar peaks. However, the dollar is still in a daily cycle decline.
It was a bit of a surprise to see such a drop on the CRB with the dollar still printing lower lows. Perhaps the CRB is foreshadowing an early daily cycle low for the buck.
The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 5, lost the 200 day MA on day 12 and closed below the lower daily cycle band on day 15. Friday’s close below the lower daily cycle band signals that the dollar is in an intermediate cycle decline.
The peak on day 5 locks in a left translated nature to this daily cycle and sets up an expectation to see this daily cycle fail. But the rising 50 week MA may prevent that from happening.
The previous two daily cycle lows for the dollar found support from the rising 50 week MA. The dollar is two days short from entering its timing band for its daily cycle low and has tagged the 50 week MA. If the dollar finds support here, then we will likely see another daily cycle that stays contained by the trading box that has developed since emerging from its intermediate low in August.
If the 50 week MA fails to provide support here, then the dollar is on its way to its intermediate cycle low. With this week being week 7 the dollar is not likely to print its intermediate cycle low until late December or early January.