Not a Minor Low

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The Miners have been in a down trend since peaking in 2011.

0 lowest

The Miners printed their lowest point in September since July, 2002.

41 gdx daily

Since emerging from that low in September, the Miners went on to close above the upper daily cycle band on day 5 to signal a new daily uptrend. After peaking on day 5 the Miners printed their lowest point last Wednesday, which was day 13. That day 13 low closed above the lower daily cycle band. The Miners closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday, renewing the daily uptrend. The Miners will remain in an uptrend as long as it does not close below the lower daily cycle band.

The Miners just confirmed a new intermediate cycle and are in their timing band for a yearly cycle low, which was covered in this week’s Weekend Report. The Miners could be on the verge of turning a major corner.

16 yr hui

Looking back over the past 16 years we can see that the Miners print a major, multi-year low on average every 40 months. The last major multi-year low printed in May of 2012 and September was month 40 following that low. The Miners have also been alternating printing their multi-year lows in the Spring and in the fall. And as we just noticed, the last multi-year low printed in May, 2012. And it is worth noting that the average gain during the first year following the multi-year low is 118%.

The first thing we need to see is a monthly swing low form on GDX. A break above 14.71 will form a monthly swing low and signal a new yearly cycle for the Miners.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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2 thoughts on “Not a Minor Low

  1. A little bit too early…. another 3-4 months needed to finish 18 month Hurst cycle an this will be important low – 54 month,9 year and 18 year cycle low
    Currently week 48 of the 18 month cycle. This is too short, I expect at least another 10-12 weeks before the bottom… average length is 65 weeks +-5 weeks

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