Bad News for Bonds

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Bonds tend to print a three year low approximately every 38 months.

THREE YEAR BOND CYCLE

Currently we can see that bonds printed a three year cycle high in January, month 13. Bonds went on to print an extended yearly cycle low in June, which was month 18. Bonds rallied out of the June low but then it was rejected soundly by the upper monthly cycle band. So lets take a closer look.

bnds yearly

Bonds printed their yearly cycle low in June. A monthly swing low formed in July. Bonds broke above the declining monthly trend line in August to confirm the new yearly cycle. Now bonds have formed a monthly swing high in September. What could potentially be developing is a left translated yearly cycle. If that is the case that would mean that the 3 year bond cycle peaked in July, month 13, possibly setting up a left translated 3 year cycle formation.

62 tlt weeklt

The huge bearish reversal on week 9 & closing back below the upper weekly cycle band indicates that bonds have begun their intermediate cycle decline.

Bonds did form a swing low and declining trend line break on the daily chart indicating that Friday was day 1 of a new daily cycle. If bonds have begun their intermediate cycle decline then this new daily cycle should be contained by the upper weekly cycle band. And our expectation would be to see this daily cycle peak by day 8 and form as a left translated daily cycle.

This was a partial excerpt of the Weekend Report. The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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