Not Clear & Convincing

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Gold still has not confirmed a new daily cycle.

gld

Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 21. After a swing high and brief decline gold printed its lowest point on day 23. Gold then bounced higher and managed to form a swing low on Tuesday. However that swing low was not a clear and convincing swing low. Since then gold has gone lower.

The good news is that gold has managed to stay above the lower cycle band maintaining a bullish posture. But I think that the lack of a clear and convincing swing low means that this daily cycle has extended making Thursday day 29. So we will need to see gold break below the day 23 low of 1116.90 to form an extended daily cycle low.

And with gold’s daily cycle extending, I think that also explains what we see happening with the Miners.

gdx

After being rejected by the 50 day MA on dray 12 the Miners went on to print a failed daily cycle on day 15. The bounce out of the day 15 low did manage to close above the lower daily cycle band, which signals a new daily cycle. However the Miners have been unable to break above the 10 day MA and today closed below the lower cycle band. So if gold is extending its daily cycle then I believe that the Miners are extending their daily cycle as well, making today day 21. Therefore I think that we will see the Miners break below the day 15 low before printing its extended daily cycle low.

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3 thoughts on “Not Clear & Convincing

  1. I agree with your feeling that the miners will drop below the day 15 low. NUGT will be inflated back up by the 1 for 10 reverse split on Sept 10 just in time to be pounded back down again. My only question is whether GDX can move sideways for 4 more days.

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