Balancing Gold & the Dollar

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A new high on day 14 shifts the likelihood that gold is forming as a right translated cycle.

gld

Despite printing a higher high, gold closed lower on the day and is threatening to break below the daily cycle trend line. A break of the daily cycle trend line would signal a daily cycle decline. But based on the dollar’s daily cycle, gold should continue to print higher highs for another week.

usd

Lately, gold has responded bullishly as the dollar declined. The dollar’s daily cycle peaked last Friday, day 9. A swing high formed on Monday and the dollar continued lower. The dollar broke below the 50 day MA and the previous cycle low on Wednesday, forming a failed daily cycle. The dollar posted a small gain today. Thursday was day 13 for the dollar’s daily cycle. At 13 days, the dollar still has another week before entering its timing band to print a daily cycle low. So the dollar should continue lower over the next week which will likely continue to lift gold higher.

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2 thoughts on “Balancing Gold & the Dollar

    • Rob,

      I would like to see a swing high before we label a half-cycle low. Gold is likely consolidating the recent move while waiting on the dollar.

      LM

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