The dollar formed a swing high on Friday.
The dollar dropped in the pre-market and came with in three cents of forming a failed daily cycle. But then recovered during the day and managed to close above the day 10 MA.
Friday was day 4 for the daily dollar cycle. This is the 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. The dollar’s intermediate cycle typically runs 3-4 daily cycles. So there is a possibility of seeing the current daily cycle form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading to an intermediate cycle decline.
The daily equity cycle peaked on day 9, formed a swing high and declined. Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, tagging the 200 day MA and setting a half cycle low.
Stocks recovered, forming a swing low on Tuesday and printing higher highs through Friday. This is the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. First daily cycles typically form as right translated cycles which usually peak on or after day 20.
Stocks did close lower on Friday. But the 387 million Buying on Weakness on Friday suggests more upside. This aligns with our expectation of this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle.
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