Monday saw the dollar print a huge bearish engulfing candle that lost the 50 day MA on day 7. It appeared as if the daily cycle topped and was poised to form as a left translated cycle.
The dollar has rallied since then, closing just off the day 7 high. Today was day 9 for the dollar’s daily cycle and if the dollar breaks to a new high the odds begin to shift toward this daily cycle forming as a right translated daily cycle.
Week 2 currently sports the intermediate cycle high. The June daily cycle low caused the dollar to back test the recent intermediate cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the week 2 high of 97.88 to increase the odds that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle.
And the dollar rallying out of its recent daily cycle low has been sending gold lower.
The intermediate gold cycle peaked on week 9 with this week being week 15. At 15 weeks gold still has a few weeks before entering its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Currently, the lowest point since the week 9 peak printed on week 11. That was too early for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we can expect gold to break below the week 11 low of 1162.10 on its way to printing its intermediate cycle low.
But gold may not stop there.
The yearly gold cycle peaked on month 2 with the lowest point printing during month 4. We define a cycle low as the lowest point following the cycle peak. Therefore we can expect to see gold break below the month 4 low of 1141.60 on its way to printing a yearly cycle low.