Thursday saw the dollar print a reversal on day 24, which is in its timing band for a daily cycle low.
The dollar formed a swing low on Friday and closed higher once again on Monday. However the dollar is still being contained by the declining trend line. A break above the declining trend line will confirm Thursday as the daily cycle low. And as the dollar rallies out of its DCL that will likely put pressure on our shiny yellow friend.
Gold’s weekly chart shows up that the current weekly cycle failed to print a higher weekly high, a bearish signal. This cycle peaked on week 9, where it was turned back by the declining 50 week MA. Gold declined and tagged the 1162 level, where it staged a brief counter trend rally. That rally seems to have exhausted itself and has formed a declining weekly trend line.
The daily chart also paints a bearish picture. The previous daily cycle broke above the 200 day MA before reversing and then printing a failed daily cycle. The current daily cycle was rejected by the 200 day MA on day 9 and today lost the 50 day MA in a clear and convincing manner. Setting the stage for another failed daily cycle. With the weekly cycle currently on week 14, that leaves the door open for gold to decline another 4 – 8 weeks into an intermediate cycle low.