In Thursday’s Morning Report we took a look at the dollar’s daily cycle decline and how it is threatening to form a failed weekly cycle. A daily swing low has formed this morning that may allow the dollar to avert this scenario.
The dollar is locked into a left translated cycle formation with a peak on day 8 and the lowest point printing yesterday, day 24. The dollar is well into its timing band to print a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. We will still need to see a break in the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.
A clear and convincing break in the declining daily trend line delivers confirmation of a new daily cycle and prevents the dollar from printing a failed intermediate cycle.