The Monday Night Report

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The daily gold cycle peaked on day 11. Then over the next week gold lost both the 200 day MA and then the 50 day MA before printing its lowest point last Thursday on day 18.

gld

Gold formed a swing low on on Friday. Gold then breached the declining cycle trend line on Monday. But this was not a clear and convincing trend line break because gold reversed and closed lower for the day. A break below Thursday’s low of 1180.20 extends this daily cycle decline.

While stocks closed higher today, they have been down 6 out of the last 9 sessions.

spx

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 9. It dropped 3 days later, finding support at the 50 day MA. Stocks have since printed a series of lower highs, forming a declining trend line. A break above the declining trend line will maintain the bullish trend for stocks. But I suspect that a break below the 50 MA will send stocks into an intermediate cycle decline. The 429 million SOS number today signals more downside. And note that the True Strength Indicator has already broke below the zero line, which is another bearish signal.

Bonds delivered a bearish signal today.

tlt

Monday was day 8 for the daily bond cycle. Bonds formed a swing high on Monday. While not all swing highs are significant, this swing high lost the 200 day MA. And after bonds have closed lower 9 out of the last 11 weeks, losing the 200 day MA is a signal that this bearish trend will continue.

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