Clear & Convincing

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The bullish follow through today on the dollar delivered a clear and convincing trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle.

1 $$$

Not only is there a swing low and declining trend line break on the daily chart, but also on the weekly chart as well.

2 $$$$ weekly

There is a lack of clarity on the weekly chart as to whether this is week 12 or week 30 for the dollar’s intermediate cycle. I tend to think week 30 is the correct labeling. What is clear is the the dollar’s weekly chart now hosts a declining weekly trend line break accompanied by a weekly swing low that signals a new intermediate cycle.

And with the dollar emerging out of an intermediate cycle low, that should signal trouble for precious metals.

gdcx

The previous intermediate cycle for the Miners was halted by the 200 day MA back in January. The current daily cycle peaked on day 6, where it was halted by the 200 MA. The big 3.61% drop today has this daily cycle set up to form as a left translated daily cycle, which should lead into an intermediate cycle decline.

Gold also formed a clear and convincing swing high today.

gold daily

Gold’s daily cycle closed above the 200 MA on day 10 and the peaked on Monday, day 11. A day 11 peak begins to shift the likelihood of this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. But if the dollar is emerging out of an intermediate cycle low then gold is at risk of forming a left translated cycle and failing, signaling an intermediate cycle decline.

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