Squeeze Play

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The intermediate equity cycle peaked back in February on week 19. Then it formed a weekly swing high indicating that it began its intermediate cycle decline. This is currently week 27 and we are still waiting on a clear and convincing break of the intermediate cycle trend line to confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

spx weekly

Stocks have been held in check by resistance from the upper declining intermediate trend line. At the same time stocks are being squeezed by the support form the rising weekly trend line. Stocks are closing in to the point where this squeeze play needs to be resolved.

The daily cycle is on day 17. Allowing 3 to 4 weeks for this daily cycle to complete would see this weekly cycle extend out to weeks 30 to 31, which would be very late in its weekly timing band. Which increases the likelihood that this daily cycle will fail and confirming an intermediate cycle decline.

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2 thoughts on “Squeeze Play

  1. Thanks for your email. I have a question: You said: “Which increases the likelihood that this daily cycle will fail and confirming an intermediate cycle decline”. Do you expect that we go down from here or rally again? Thanks already for your response.

    • Geurt,

      My best guess is that we go down for here. The daily cycle is going on day 18. If stocks were to go higher now, it would shift the likelihood of this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. The intermediate cycle is late in its timing band which makes a left translated daily cycle that fails a greater likelihood.

      LM

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