Dollar Expectations


The previous daily dollar cycle peaked on day 13, formed a swing high and then proceeded to decline into a 21 day, daily cycle low. After emerging out of that daily cycle low, the dollar peaked on day 3, formed a swing high on day 5, and delivered more bearish follow through on Friday and then again on Monday. At this point the dollar seemed destined to break below the day 21 low of 96.17, forming a failed daily cycle.

Today the dollar did not follow through with our expectations …

1 $$$

Instead of breaking below the previous daily cycle low, the dollar formed a swing low today. Tuesday was day 6 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar seems to have found support at the 50 day MA. So instead of dropping into a failed daily cycle the dollar may begin a consolidation pattern.

$$$ daily

The dollar formed a triangle consolidation pattern in late January into February and maybe forming another one here. Breaking above the upper stem will swing the odds of the daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. A break below the lower stem will keep alive the possibility of the dollar printing a failed daily cycle, confirming an intermediate cycle decline.


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