The Summary below is a regular feature provided in the Weekend Report.
The bullish reversal on Thursday followed by a swing low on Friday indicates that a new daily cycle has begun.
The volatility in stocks continued this week, obscuring our daily cycle count. The weekly cycle count is clear and we are on watch for an intermediate cycle decline.
Gold formed a swing high after being rejected by the 50 day MA. If the dollar has begun a new daily cycle then gold quite likely has begun its daily cycle decline.
The swing high and bearish follow through this week delivers a bearish out look.
The CRB was rejected by the 50 day MA and formed a swing high. This favors a left translated cycle formation, indicating a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.
The swing high and trend line break this week signaled a daily cycle decline.
The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 13. It printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 21. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle.
The dollar also breached the declining cycle trend line on Friday. Which is more evidence that a daily cycle low has been left behind. A clear and convincing trend line break will confirm a new daily cycle.
Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday. Then delivered more bearish follow through on Wednesday, closing below the the 50 day MA indicating a daily cycle decline.
With the intermediate cycle now on week 23, we are on that watch for an intermediate cycle decline. An early 26 day, daily cycle low followed by a left translated cycle would align with that expectation.
However, stocks breached the intermediate trend line on Thursday and closed higher on Friday. If day 26 was not an early daily cycle low that would make Thursday day 37. That would place stocks right in the heart of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A 37 day, daily cycle low labeling aligns with the triangle consolidation formation we are witnessing on the weekly chart. The weekly chart is discussed in the Weekend Report.
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