Don’t Look Now


The CRB peaked last summer and then proceeded to drop steadily. A bullish weekly reversal printed in late January hinting that the beat down was over. Then the CRB rolled over mid February and dropped further.

crb weekly

Another bullish reversal printed last week.

crb weekly 2

The CRB has followed up the bullish reversal last week by forming a weekly swing low today. The intermediate cycle has been very stretched so this weekly swing low has pretty good odds of signaling a new intermediate cycle. A clear and convincing break of the declining weekly trend line will confirm a new intermediate cycle.

And its no coincident that commodities are perking up now that the dollar has peaked.


The dollar’s daily cycle peaked last Monday. A swing high formed on Tuesday. The dollar then delivered a clear and convincing break lower on Wednesday, Fed Day, confirming the daily cycle decline. Today was day 18 and the dollar continued to print lower highs. At day 18, the dollar has now entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

The dollar is due to seek out an intermediate cycle low. A failed daily cycle is required to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, the dollar would need to break below the late February low of 94.17, to print a failed daily cycle. With a peak on day 13, it is more likely that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle, printing a higher low. Then we would look towards the next daily cycle forming as a left translated cycle and failing, sending the dollar into its intermediate cycle low.


One thought on “Don’t Look Now

  1. Pingback: Bullish Surprise | Cycle Trading

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