Bonds Rebound


The daily bond cycle peaked in late January on day 6. A swing high then formed the following Monday. The decline into the day 17 low broke below the previous daily cycle low, producing a failed daily cycle.

tlt daily

Day 17 looked, in real time, like an early daily cycle low. Bonds proceeded to rally but could not hold above the 50 day MA and declined further. Bonds printed their lowest point on Friday since peaking in late January. Making Friday either day 13 or day 30.

If bonds are rejected by the declining trend line then I believe that Friday was day 13 and bonds will continue their intermediate cycle decline. However, if bonds can break above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner, then that indicates that Friday was day 30 making Wednesday day 3 of a new daily cycle.


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