Golden Possibilities

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The Miners found support at the 50 day MA on day 16. The subsequent swing low and mini trend line break appeared as if an early daily cycle low had formed. Which would mean that the Miners have just failed this new daily cycle.

But there is another possibility to consider …

gdx

Instead of day 16 being an early daily cycle low, it is possible that the bounce simply set the declining trend line making today day 24 for the Miners daily cycle.

Gold experienced a similar situation, being turned lower by the declining trend line.

gld

Like the Miners, day 17 could be an early daily cycle low. But the subsequent bounce out of that low failed to break above the declining (black) trend line. Because of this, I simply cannot rule out the possibility that Thursday is day 24 for gold’s daily cycle and day 24 for the Miner’s daily cycle.

Some of this may resolve on Friday. The jobs numbers come out on Friday and that could provide the catalyst for the dollar to begin its intermediate decline.

$$$

Thursday was day 6 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline. Failed daily cycles typically peak on or before day 8. So the possibility exists for the dollar to top on “Jobs Friday” and then decline into an intermediate cycle low.

The scenario of both the Miners and gold being on day 24 of a failed daily cycle with the dollar rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline is a golden possibility. This hinges on the dollar. Making the dollar the joker in the deck.

jjj

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3 thoughts on “Golden Possibilities

  1. Still time for your GDX TSI red signal line to make that positive divergence I been looking / hoping for. Then maybe GDX will take ☆—☆—☆✈ off . At least for a while .

    • Rob,

      That is a possibility, but not a certainty. Last week was week 16. plenty of time for one more failed dail cycle for gold.

      However, gold has formed a weekly swing low. A break above the declining weekly trend line (> than 1240) signals a new intermediate cycle.

      Again I defer to the dollar. Continued dollar strength will likely send gold further in its intermediate decline. An intermediate dollar decline should be the wind beneath gold’s wings.

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