The intermediate cycle is on week 18 and just entered its timing band to seek out an intermediate low. Therefore we our expectation is to see the daily cycle peak by day 8 and roll over into a daily cycle decline.
And the dollar appears to be fulfilling our expectations. The daily cycle peaked on Wednesday, day 6. A swing high formed on Thursday. Friday the dollar broke below the daily cycle trend line signaling the daily cycle decline. And if day 6 remains as the daily cycle peak then we have a very bearish formation developing for the dollar with the dollar failing to print a higher daily cycle high following a right translated daily cycle.
Stocks broke above the declining trend line and 50 day MA the previous week to signal a new daily cycle. Stocks began this week with a successful back test of the 50 day MA and rallied into Friday.
Friday was day 9 for the new daily cycle and stocks broke out to a new all time high. This presents us with a cyclical anomaly. The left translated nature of the previous daily cycle indicated an intermediate cycle decline.
With stocks breaking out to a new high, the question is does this mark a new intermediate cycle? The more I look at this the more I come back to the fact that stocks did not deliver a failed daily cycle. Therefore I believe that this marks week 17 for the intermediate equity cycle.
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