Clear and Convincing


Stocks rallied 21 points today, regaining the 50 day MA. Stocks also broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner to confirm the new daily cycle.


The declining trend line is the same trend line for the intermediate cycle decline. The trend line break delivers a cyclical anomaly. A break of the declining intermediate trend line signals a new intermediate cycle but we have a left translated daily cycle that did not fail.

There was a very similar set up back in 2005-06.

spx 05 06

Both then and now:
* Both occurred during the second daily cycle.
* Both had a triangle consolidation that resulted in a left translated cycle that did not fail.
* Both occurred during week 16 of the intermediate cycle.
* Both delivered a declining intermediate trend line break signaling a new intermediate cycle.

Back in 2006, stock went on to print an 18 week intermediate cycle.

Meanwhile, the Miners also printed a trend line break.


While the Miners delivered a trend line break, it was not clear and convincing. And with the 200 day MA right there, I would like to see some bullish follow that regains the 200 day MA to confirm that day 29 was the daily cycle low.


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