The Wednesday Update

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While it is possible that today is day 10 for the dollar’s daily cycle, I think that the alignment of the 10 day MA with the daily cycle trend line points to Tuesday being day 32 for the dollar’s daily cycle.

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The dollar delivered a trend line break on Tuesday to signal a daily cycle decline. Today saw the dollar recover a bit. If a swing low forms off of Tuesday’s low, that would signal that Tuesday was day 32. A break above 94.93 forms a swing low and a trend line break confirms the new daily cycle.

One possible scenario would see the dollar confirm a new daily cycle. Then print a reversal on Friday, triggered by the jobs report. This reversal should then see the dollar decline into its intermediate cycle low.

The CRB has certainly benefitted by the recent dollar weakness.

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The CRB rallied over 8% in its first three days as it emerged from its daily cycle low. It looks like we will see the CRB back test its recent low. But if the dollar has begun its intermediate decline, then that should send the CRB into a new intermediate cycle, with the expectation for this first daily cycle to form in a right translated manner.

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