The daily equity cycle peaked on day 8 and proceeded to decline. Stocks formed a swing high on day 9, loss the 50 day MA and printed an early half cycle low on day 13.

1 spx

The rally out of the day 13 half cycle low broke back above the 50 day MA only to turn and once again lose the 50 day MA, forming the declining cycle trend line.

Today stocks attempted to regain the 50 Day MA but was rejected by the declining cycle trend line. Today was day 18 for the daily equity cycle. Today’s rejection by the declining trend line should send stocks into their daily cycle low. Stocks will enter their timing band for a daily cycle low about day 30, which leaves over two weeks for stocks to continue lower. With a peak on day 8, this daily cycle is in the process of forming in a left translated manner. A left translated cycle will likely break below the December low of 1972.56 forming a failed daily cycle and confirming the intermediate cycle decline.


5 thoughts on “Rejection

    • Brandy,

      Allowing 2-3 weeks to print the daily cycle low will take the intermediate cycle only out to week 15 or 16. That would be early. I think that it is more likely that we will see another daily cycle. Something to keep in mind is that if this daily cycle fails and there is another daily cycle, that cycle should also fail and threaten the October pivot.


    • Ragingrooster,

      Yes the BOW is quickly adding up. But now we have a declining trend line. However stocks are in decline Unless stocks break above the declining trend line.


  1. You also didn’t draw out a trend line from the Dec 15 bottom up thru Days 13 & 18, creating a wedge and squeeze. Plunge Protection Team (PPT) may come in to save the day. Plus, 3rd year of presidential term is usually very strong.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s