Stocks continued to drop today, slicing right through the 50 day MA. Losing the 50 day MA signals that stocks have entered their daily cycle decline.
A daily cycle decline with a peak on day 9 would leave another 20 – 30 days before a daily cycle low is expected. That would lock in a left translated nature to this daily cycle which will likely result in a failed daily cycle. A break below December’s low of 1972.56 forms a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle also signals an intermediate cycle decline.
The intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 11 and this week has formed a weekly swing high. There is also a breach of the intermediate cycle trend line which is a signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline. Of course we would like to see a clear and convincing break of that trend line to confirm the intermediate decline.
As we just discussed, the daily cycle has another 4 – 6 weeks before a daily cycle low is due. With stocks on week 12, they are 6 weeks shy of entering their timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
That points to trouble around the corner.
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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker.