In last night’s post, When Push Comes to Shove, we discussed that gold needs a shove to either declare a new daily cycle high or commit to a daily cycle decline.
Instead of a shove, we go more of a nudge. Let’s take a look.
Gold managed to rally enough to close above the declining 50 day moving average. While that was not a clear and convincing move, here is what it did.
It has shifted the daily cycle high from day 7 out to day 11. This shift dramatically increases the likelihood that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle. Which means that this would be the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.
So let’s see what this looks like on the weekly chart.
Gold printed its lowest point on week 18 and then went on to break above the declining weekly trend line. Gold then formed a weekly swing low last week. And this week (so far) gold is delivering more bullish follow through.
This is looking more and more like an intermediate low has been left behind for gold. And if an intermediate low has been left behind, then there is a good chance that a yearly cycle low has been left behind as well.
Meanwhile, stocks came close to confirming a new daily cycle.
Stocks printed its lowest point last Wednesday, day 48. Since then stocks have formed a swing low and now has rallied 4 straight days. We are looking for a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line before we declare a new daily cycle.
Today was close, but no cigar.