Back to the Mail Bag

00<http://postimg.org/image/pt6hps777/

An email from one of my subscribers, Brad, asked this question.

"LM if gold has been on an extended daily cycle could it be possible that the dollar is on an extended daily cycle as well"

Let's take a look.

1 $$$http://postimg.org/image/yph9tpxtf/

Currently we have the dollar’s daily cycle peaking on day 8 with today being day 12. A peak on or before day 8 is typical of a left translated cycle that is destined to fail. Considering that the dollar is on week 22 and due for an intermediate cycle decline a labeling of a peak on day 8 fits that framework.

2 $$$http://postimg.org/image/618x48l0z/

But what if, like gold, the dollar is on an extended daily cycle. Then the dollar peaked on day 39 which makes today day 43. Granted this is a possibility. But when we back the dollar out some more this becomes easier to consider.

3 $$$http://postimg.org/image/c6oo1x9l1/

We see that the dollar is currently backtesting the previous three year cycle high. An extended right translated daily cycle should only have a brief decline. So if the dollar prints a swing low we will be forced to consider this as an extended daily cycle. And if that is the case, then our expectation would be to see the new daily quickly break to a new high and then roll over into an intermediate cycle decline.

Meanwhile we have no confirmation of a daily cycle low yet for stocks.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/88d5s5qb7/

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 30. Stocks printed there lowest point since then on Wednesday, which was day 43. Stocks are starting to get to the latter part of there timing band for a daily cycle low. We are still waiting on a swing low and a trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle. A brake above 1970.36 forms a swing low.

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One thought on “Back to the Mail Bag

  1. Likesmoney,
    Correct me if I am wrong, but to night it looks like we now have a lower low on the $SPX & $INDU. And their candles, WOW! Tuesday: Bears say, ” Look How Big My Candle Is.” Wednesday: Bulls say, ” Ha! Look How Big My Candle Is. ” Thursday: Bears say, ” But I Outdid You Again.” Friday is the Bull’s turn, and if they don’t bury the Bears, well……..
    Jack Dog
    P.S. ……. I’m out. ( This DC has given back more than 95% of the gains so far! )

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