Turning Points


Both the dollar and equities appear to have hit turning points.

1 $$$http://postimg.org/image/ndxpjjqt9/

The dollar is 21 weeks into its intermediate cycle and due to roll over into an intermediate cycle low. Therefore our expectation would be to see the dollar to roll over by day 8 and print a failed daily cycle.

We can see that the dollar peaked on Tuesday which was day 5. While the dollar closed lower on Wednesday, a swing high did not form until today. The dollar also broke below the daily cycle trend line which signals a daily cycle decline and fits into our expectation of forming as a left translated cycle. The bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator also signals a daily cycle decline for the buck.


Stocks printed a bullish reversal today. Thursday was day 39 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1952.32 forms a swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.


8 thoughts on “Turning Points

  1. Likesmoney,
    Since we have a swing high for the Weekly & Monthly on the $SPX, ‘if’ this is a new Daily Cycle, what list of indicators should we watch for a Failed Daily Cycle.
    thanks, Jack Dog

    • Jack Dog,

      A failed weekly cycle confirms the yearly cycle decline.
      A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

      A break below 1926.03 delvers a failed daily cycle.

  2. Also what sort of retracement level are we looking at for the USD?

    Knowing how the USD has been behaving, this could just be a fake out to trap the Bears, although the only difference being the time period its in for a decline to begin.

    Will be interesting

  3. Looks like the dollar is going to 88-89 and the euro down to 120ish – is there such a thing as a stretched cycle such as out to end of October or something up to the FOMC meeting?

    Maybe Friday’s surge was just an emotive surge. Something needs to turn it this week. Wonder what bullish sentiment is at for the USD. Must be off the charts

  4. So with the dollar correction – what sort of level or retrace would you be looking at before the next Intermediate Cycle begins to test the 200MA?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s