Intermediate Decline


Stocks extended their daily cycle decline today.

2 spx daily

Wednesday was day 38 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low and declining trend line break will confirm a new daily cycle. The 301 million BOW that printed today also signal that a new daily cycle is near. Even though a new daily cycle is due to begin, any rally will likely be short lived because there are signals that indicate that the intermediate cycle has begun.


First off we see that the Russell has already pretend a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline and the Russell is now leading the way into an intermediate cycle decline.

2 spx weekly

The intermediate cycle peaked three weeks ago. A weekly swing high formed last week. And today’s break lower has caused stocks to breach a trend line that stretched back to 2012. There is also a bearish zero line crossover on the weekly True Strength Indicator. The bearish weekly crossover has been a reliable indicator of an intermediate cycle decline.


One thought on “Intermediate Decline

  1. Basic materials led the way, small caps, junk debt and oil got the message, but for some strange reason investors think large cap value and dividend paying stocks are a safe haven and the 200 SMA is going to stop this ICL decline or what “the climber” likes to call a “normal profit taking event.” $’s to doughnuts, credit and commodities and the USD have it right and the equity market has it wrong. This ICL will be 9-18% peak ti trough and man diapers will be a necessity when the 200 DMA fails and oil breaks $90, gold breaks $1179 and the yen carry trade unwinds while margin calls hit the tape day after day. See youat SPX 1500 in 2015! ;-$

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