The Mighty Dollar

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The dollar rallied again today printing another higher daily cycle high.

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Tuesday was day 5 for the daily dollar cycle. At 21 weeks into its intermediate cycle, the dollar is now due to roll over into an intermediate cycle low. Therefore our expectation would be to see the dollar to roll over by day 8 and print a failed daily cycle. However, as we saw today, until the dollar rolls over, commodities will continue to be volatile.

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Both oil and the CRB delivered trend line breaks on Monday. After the dollar set new highs today we see that they both formed swing highs and now threaten to break below the recent lows.

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Stocks continue to flounder as the dollar rallies. Monday saw stocks print a reversal and regain the 50 day MA. While stocks did form a swing low today, stocks were halted by the declining cycle trend line and lost the 50 day MA. We still are waiting on a clear and convincing trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle.

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Bonds formed a swing high today. If bonds deliver a clear and convincing trend line break that would indicate that bonds are continuing their intermediate cycle decline.

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5 thoughts on “The Mighty Dollar

  1. When the USD does roll over, will that be some long term high for years, or is it this the first up cycle in a new bull market for the dollar?

    • The dollar just began the third 3 year cycle of a 15 year super cycle. The 15 year super cycle generally peaks during this third 3 year cycle. At this point we do not know if this 3 year cycle will form as a right or left translated cycle. But the 200 month MA is just ahead, currently at 89.95. It has been over 10 years since the dollar was above the 200 month MA. I do not think that we will test it during this intermediate cycle but probably test it during the next intermediate cycle.

      • Interesting. So the means that the gold and silver lows still are yet to be seen.
        What reverses this thought?
        A break of the 3 year low perhaps?
        Thanks. Your cycle commentary is very interesting.

      • Gold & silver may not bottom until this three year dollar cycle peaks (along with the 15 year super cycle)

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