Commodities took a bullish turn today with many forming swing lows or delivering a declining trend line break.
Oil has been in decline since late July. Last week on Monday, oil printed its lowest point since the July peaK. Then on Tuesday of last week, oil formed a swing low. Finally today Oil broke above the declining trend line to confirm today as day 5 of the new daily cycle.
NATGAS also delivered a trend line break today.
NATGAS’s yearly cycle peaked in February and decline into July. We suspected that NATGAS left behind a yearly low then, but was waiting on confirmation. The clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line along with closing above the resistance at the $4.00 level signals that NATGAS is in a new yearly cycle.
Agriculture also delivered a clear and convincing declining trend line break.
The daily cycle for agriculture peaked in early September and declined into the lowest point last Monday. Although a swing low formed the next day it was not until today that a clear and convincing declining trend line break form making today day 5 of a new daily cycle.
So with Oil, NATGAS, and Ag all delivering trend line breaks it is no surprise to see the CRB do so as well. The trend line break today confirms Monday as day 5 for the new CRB daily cycle.
Meanwhile stocks printed a lower low today.
Monday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle. While a lower low did form, stocks also rallied into the close, recovering the 50 day MA. This has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. At day 36, stocks are in their timing band to print daily cycle low. A break above 1981.28 forms a swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle. With a peak on day 30, this daily cycle will form in a right translated manner. Therefore, we can expect the new cycle to go on to print a higher daily cycle high.