Broken Record

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Gold printed another lower low today.
Gold is getting late in its timing band.
Gold is due for a daily cycle low.
A swing low will likely form the daily cycle low.

It seems that the above has been the narrative on gold for the past four weeks. And it is all true again today.

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Thursday was day 38 for gold’s daily cycle. The bullish reversal has set up gold to form a swing low. A break above 1224.80 forms a swing low. Then a break above the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

And what has been driving gold lower is the unrelenting push higher by the dollar.

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Thursday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar has broken above the previous three year cycle high. Please notice the dollar’s tendency to break above a previous high then reversing into a sharp decline. And with the dollar on week 20, the dollar is due for an intermediate cycle decline. Our expectation is to see the current daily dollar cycle form in a left translated manner. Which means that a bearish reversal should be imminent.

So the dollar is the puppet master. And once the intermediate cycle rolls over, we should see gold break out into a new daily cycle.

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