The 9/23/14 Evening Report

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Based on previous daily equities cycles, we needed to be open to the possibility that day 26 marked a daily cycle low. Today’s print takes that scenario off the table.

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The daily equity cycle broke below the trend line formed by the day 26 candle. The break of that trend line means that day 26 set the daily cycle trend line. Which makes today day 32. Today’s trend line break also signals that the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar formed a swing high today.

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Tuesday was day 5 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The weekly cycle sits at week 20 and is in the timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. Our expectation is to see this daily cycle form in a left translated fashion and fail. The swing high and trend line break that printed today aligns with our expectation. Still we need to see a clear and convincing break of the trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners have been waiting on the dollar to rollover to form a swing low.

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The Miners daily cycle has been in decline since peaking in early August. The Miners printed the lowest point on Monday and today they formed a swing low. Considering that the Miners are late in their timing band, today’s swing has a good chance of marking the daily cycle low.

The Miners are currently declining into their yearly cycle low. As discussed here last night, I believe that the Miners need to break below 21.93 to form a lower low. You will notice that the Miners did not break below the June low of 21.93. By not making that lower low I believe that the Miners will need to do so before beginning a new yearly cycle. So if today’s swing low is the daily cycle low, then I expect to see one more failed daily cycle.

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