A Few Thoughts on Gold

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Tonight we will take a look at the yearly gold cycle, something I cover regularly in the Weekend Report.

But first a few thoughts on the daily cycle: Gold did form a daily swing low today. That would make Thursday day 5 of the new daily cycle. So it appears that gold has just left behind a shortened, failed, daily cycle. Gold will likely react bullishly now that the dollar appears be in decline. But the yearly cycle is signaling that gold still needs seek out its yearly cycle low.

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The yearly gold cycle has peaked in March, which was month 3. The lowest point since then printed in June, which was month 6. The recent failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

August is month 8 for the yearly gold cycle. I believe that gold still needs to print its yearly cycle low. Since a cycle low is, by definition, the lowest point following the cycle peak, then gold will need to break below 1240.20 to print its yearly cycle low.

Right now I expect gold to react bullishly as the dollar seeks out its daily cycle low. But since this current dollar cycle is likely to form in a right translated manner, then its next daily cycle should go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

As the dollar then rallies out of its daily cycle low, that should send gold into its final yearly cycle decline, breaking below 1240.20.

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