Proceed With Caution

Wednesday was day 23 and stocks have yet to break above the day 15 peak.

The intermediate equity cycle stands at week 23. Because stocks are beginning to get to the latter part of the timing band for an intermediate cycle low we are on alert for a left translated daily cycle forming which will signal the intermediate cycle decline.

Failure to print a new daily cycle high holds the door open for a left translated cycle still forming here.

The Selling on Strength is also giving warning signals.

Stocks printed a big 226 million selling on strength today. That follows a respectable 184 million SOS day on July 2nd. These are beginning to look like the type of numbers that I expect to see near an intermediate cycle top.

Meanwhile gold could be finding support.

A break above 1314.50 forms a daily swing low. Should that happen gold would form a swing low in a support zone where the 50 day MA held as support. This is a bullish scenario that points to Monday being day 29.

And if Monday was day 29 then gold formed a right translated daily cycle that sets the expectation of the next daily cycle printing a higher high.


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