The 7/11/14 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

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The dollar left behind a long upper shadow last Friday, which was day 2. After losing both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA early this week the dollar certainly looked poised to deliver a failed daily cycle.

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But instead of failing, the dollar managed to rally the last two days of the week. So instead of a failed daily cycle, the dollar looks like it set its daily cycle trend line.

Stocks

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At 22 weeks stocks are in their timing band for a intermediate low. Therefore we are on alert for a left translated daily cycle forming to signal the intermediate cycle decline.

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The peak on day 15 followed by a swing high and decline aligned with our expectation to see a left translated daily cycle. But on Friday stocks broke above the developing declining trend line. The formation of a swing low and regaining the 10 MA will signal that this was a half cycle low.

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2 thoughts on “The 7/11/14 Weekend Report Preview

  1. If stocks are only printing a half cycle low….is it still possible to see a left trans failed daily cycle here? Or has odds now shifted to a right trans?

    Right trans signifying “yet another” daily cycle with higher highs to follow here? Good lord.

    • Trader Gal,

      Stocks have not printed a half cycle low yet. Stocks would need to form a swing low off the day 19 print. A break above 1969.84 forms a swing low.

      It is possible to see a left translated cycle form here and fail. That would require stocks to the bounce out of the day 19 pivot to fail to make a new high.

      And yes, if this forms as a right translated cycle, that sets up the expectation to see another daily cycle to follow that prints a higher daily cycle high.

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