Stocks are 21 weeks into their intermediate cycle, which places them in the timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. A left translated daily cycle is needed to initiate the intermediate cycle decline. So a swing high off the day 15 peak aligned with our expectations. Except that stocks may have thrown us a curve ball because they do not appear to be ready to call it quits yet.
Thursday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks printed a bullish reversal. A break above 1969.84 forms a swing low and quite likely a half cycle low which could take stocks above 2000.
The Miners also printed a reversal today.
Thursday saw the Miners break out to new highs. As we discussed here last night that confirmation of the daily cycle decline occurs with a break of the daily cycle trend line. Which has not happened. We speculated that perhaps a break of the accelerated trend line was all we were going to see. So either today was day 2 of a new daily cycle or day 29 of a stretched daily cycle.
A possible scenario is that stocks will make one more push to break above 2000, driving the Miners into a daily cycle low. Then when the daily cycle equity decline begins the Miners will rally.