The dollar may have printed a daily cycle low today. We discussed here yesterday that since it is unlikely to have a daily dollar cycle stretch past 30 days that Monday was day 16 of a failed daily cycle. The narrow range day today eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break hove 79.89 forms a swing low.
At 17 days, the dollar is just one day shy of the timing band for a daily cycle low. The failed daily cycle indicates that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. With the weekly cycle at 8 weeks that leaves another 10 to 14 weeks to print an intermediate cycle low. And if the dollar is to continue into the intermediate decline our expectation will be to see the dollar peak by day 8.
The precious metals seems to have been waiting on the dollar to rally before correcting. The Miners are getting late in their daily cycle and today may have marked the cycle peak.
Tuesday was day 23 for the daily Miner cycle. Today’s bearish reversal has made it easy to form a swing high. A break below 26.15 forms a swing high and quite likely marks the daily cycle decline. Since it is getting late in the Miner daily cycle we can expect this daily decline to be short in duration.
So we have the dollar about to rally out of a failed daily cycle with the expectation of a brief rally before continuing into an intermediate decline. Combined with an expectation for the Miner’s decline to be brief in duration before the next leg up.
The pieces are coming together …