Shot Across the Bow


The Miners continued to rally today. Thursday was day 10 for the daily Miner cycle. So far the Miners broke above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. They also broke above the 50 day MA and stopped short of the 200 day MA today.

gd daily

The Miners were turned back by the 200 day MA during the last daily cycle. That resulted in the Miners declining into an intermediate cycle decline.

If the Miners are rejected here, that would signal trouble for them. However a clear and convincing break above the 200 MA will increase the likelihood of this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. That would set the expectation of the next daily cycle printing a higher daily cycle high.

The Miners also look bullish on the weekly chart.

GDX weekly

The intermediate cycle peaked on week 12. The Miners printed its lowest point last week. This week we see that the Miners are in the process of printing a clear and convincing declining weekly trend line break. That confirms a new intermediate cycle. Also this intermediate low is well above the previous intermediate low. Therefore beginning a new pattern of higher lows and (hopefully) higher highs.

However there are some warning signals that we need to acknowledge.



Both platinum and palladium printed huge bearish reversals. These formed swing highs and broke the daily cycle trend lines. Technical damage was done to their daily cycles. The daily cycle trend lines were breached signaling a decline into a daily cycle low.

The Miners cycles are developing rather favorably. I would be very bullish if not for what happened to platinum and palladium. So while I am cautiously optimistic on the Miners, I think today’s action underscores the importance of not throwing caution to the wind …



4 thoughts on “Shot Across the Bow

  1. Fantastic blog! I really appreciate your cycle analysis, it is VERY instructive. Question: you number the peak high(s) on the intermediate weekly cycle(s), but not on the shorter daily cycle(s), is there a reason for that?

    • That may have been inadvertent

      I generally label all cycle lows. That’s because I keep my cycle counts from low to low. If a chart is too cluttered, I will omit a cycle peak label. But I track the peaks as well as the lows.

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